https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/ Published infectious-disease literature filtered to Mathematical modelling. en Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:02:01 GMT https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-62054-ijdm-0303-07-6bc6b0c8/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-62054-ijdm-0303-07-6bc6b0c8/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT The abstract frames the work as relevant to giardiasis control by highlighting treatment effectiveness, resistant strains, sanitation, safe water, hygiene, and environmental contamination as intervention-related themes. Giardiasis Transmission dynamics Treatment Climate and environment One Health Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-62054-ijdm-0303-24-4e33d7b6/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-62054-ijdm-0303-24-4e33d7b6/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT The findings offer insights for public health policy in communities affected by leptospirosis, particularly regarding the need for integrated interventions targeting environmental conditions and infection treatment across species. Leptospirosis Transmission dynamics Treatment Climate and environment One Health Health policy Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-epidem-2026-100932-1bed4d95/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-epidem-2026-100932-1bed4d95/ Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT The results suggest that prioritizing early childhood immunization could meaningfully decrease national dengue incidence if a broadly protective vaccine becomes available. Dengue Transmission dynamics Vaccination Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1142-s1793524526500865-8544ab4a/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1142-s1793524526500865-8544ab4a/ Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT The findings offer theoretical support for understanding Lyme disease transmission characteristics and for designing regionally targeted precision prevention and control strategies relevant to the northward expansion of the disease in North America. Lyme disease Transmission dynamics Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1038-s41591-026-04561-w-113aa29d/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1038-s41591-026-04561-w-113aa29d/ Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT The abstract indicates potential relevance for assessing measles vulnerability and for considering vaccination and outbreak-monitoring approaches at school and district levels. These implications are model-based and do not establish that a current surveillance signal has been confirmed. Measles COVID-19 Transmission dynamics Vaccination Outbreak investigation Surveillance One Health Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-28924-2291-8639-24-2026-257-d7074e98/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-28924-2291-8639-24-2026-257-d7074e98/ Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT The findings may provide mathematical context for understanding factors related to persistence of HBV within the modelled host environment. The supplied article does not report patient outcomes, population-level effects, or an evaluation of public health interventions. Hepatitis D Hepatitis B Transmission dynamics Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1038-s41467-026-74737-y-6f2038f6/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1038-s41467-026-74737-y-6f2038f6/ Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT The work addresses an urgent regional challenge by quantifying how strategic antimalarial policy adjustments could preserve drug efficacy and reduce clinical failures over a six-year timeframe. Malaria Treatment Transmission dynamics Health policy Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pntd-0014184-3645e0a4/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pntd-0014184-3645e0a4/ Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT The results indicate that aligning intervention magnitude with transmission severity and sustaining continuous monitoring are essential strategies for managing emerging arboviral threats in temperate regions. Chikungunya Dengue Outbreak investigation Surveillance Transmission dynamics Climate and environment Travel medicine Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-vaccine-2026-128478-c29116fc/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-vaccine-2026-128478-c29116fc/ Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT The findings indicate that a district-level vaccination campaign delivered through community healthcare centers may be relevant to efforts to increase influenza vaccination among school-age children. The abstract describes potential effects on other age groups, but it does not establish effects beyond the modeled setting. Influenza Vaccination Transmission dynamics Climate and environment Surveillance Health policy Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-lanmic-2025-101251-945fed37/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-lanmic-2025-101251-945fed37/ Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Tracking these historical dispersal routes highlights how environmental modifications and climatic shifts may influence future viral establishment, suggesting that specific ecological zones warrant focused monitoring efforts. Rift Valley fever Transmission dynamics Genomic epidemiology Surveillance Vaccination Climate and environment One Health Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1093-cid-ciaf524-e49868e5/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1093-cid-ciaf524-e49868e5/ Thu, 08 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT These projections inform strategic planning for managing resistance risks associated with upcoming therapeutic approvals for sexually transmitted infections. Gonorrhea Transmission dynamics Antimicrobial resistance Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pmed-1004874-00078e1d/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pmed-1004874-00078e1d/ Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Mexico and the broader Americas region have experienced increased dengue incidence in recent years, prompting concerns that climate changes may enhance transmission. Understanding serotype-specific transmission patterns can inform assessments of intervention impact. Dengue Transmission dynamics Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-s12879-025-12219-0-827c63f8/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-s12879-025-12219-0-827c63f8/ Tue, 09 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT The model framework supports reproducibility through MATLAB implementation and offers potential application to malaria forecasting and control strategy development. Malaria Transmission dynamics Outbreak investigation Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pntd-0013702-167c422f/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pntd-0013702-167c422f/ Wed, 19 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT The projections are framed as a basis for anticipating dengue outbreaks and for guiding proactive, targeted vector and public health control strategies in China. Dengue Climate and environment Outbreak investigation Transmission dynamics Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1038-s41467-025-62358-w-8c544db8/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1038-s41467-025-62358-w-8c544db8/ Wed, 06 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMT Findings provide a modeling foundation for anticipating possible hMPV dynamics when RSV immunization strategies are deployed. COVID-19 SARS Transmission dynamics Outbreak investigation Surveillance Vaccination Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-s12879-025-10653-8-209a5eaf/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-s12879-025-10653-8-209a5eaf/ Thu, 06 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT The model demonstrates that malaria control requires integrated strategies combining vaccination, vector control, improved blood screening, and safe healthcare practices. The findings support policy design for malaria eradication efforts, particularly in regions where non-vector transmission may undermine mosquito control gains. Malaria Vaccination Transmission dynamics Treatment Climate and environment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-3390-math13020322-cf7e330f/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-3390-math13020322-cf7e330f/ Mon, 20 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT The model highlights the relevance of environmental and food contamination pathways in salmonellosis transmission and emphasizes accurate parameter estimation as important for understanding and controlling disease dynamics. COVID-19 Salmonellosis Transmission dynamics One Health Climate and environment Outbreak investigation Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-ijid-2024-02-019-0d4d7d86/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-ijid-2024-02-019-0d4d7d86/ Wed, 01 May 2024 00:00:00 GMT The findings highlight the importance of accounting for baseline differences in frailty between vaccinated and unvaccinated populations when estimating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness from observational data, particularly during periods without active COVID-19 transmission. COVID-19 SARS Vaccination Outbreak investigation Climate and environment Transmission dynamics Vaccine effectiveness Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-23-00451-6-f4ce6dd3/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-23-00451-6-f4ce6dd3/ Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT The findings suggest that reductions in sexual partner rates among some GBMSM drove the outbreak reversal, and that timely vaccination helped limit future resurgences, informing control strategies for future mpox outbreaks. Monkeypox Transmission dynamics Outbreak investigation Vaccination Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1136-bmjgh-2023-012306-6be5af69/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1136-bmjgh-2023-012306-6be5af69/ Wed, 31 May 2023 00:00:00 GMT The study addresses TB control in the context of population ageing in China and may support evidence-based decisions on TB vaccination strategy and reimbursement. Tuberculosis Vaccination Transmission dynamics Vaccine effectiveness Health policy Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-vaccine-2023-04-011-9307a00f/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-vaccine-2023-04-011-9307a00f/ Mon, 01 May 2023 00:00:00 GMT The findings are relevant to global funders and national malaria programs allocating limited resources by characterizing when RTS,S adds value beyond established vector-control and chemoprevention measures. Malaria Transmission dynamics Vaccination Climate and environment Treatment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pntd-0011247-f36dc936/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pntd-0011247-f36dc936/ Thu, 13 Apr 2023 00:00:00 GMT The paper says the model may support future mosquito control strategies and early warning for mosquito-borne disease risk. Dengue COVID-19 Outbreak investigation Transmission dynamics Climate and environment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-s12879-022-07664-0-186b5930/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-s12879-022-07664-0-186b5930/ Wed, 17 Aug 2022 00:00:00 GMT The simulation results can inform policy decisions regarding mandatory or recommended face mask use on public transport networks to reduce COVID-19 transmission risk in crowded enclosed spaces. COVID-19 SARS Outbreak investigation Transmission dynamics Health policy Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-22-00138-4-54ef837d/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-22-00138-4-54ef837d/ Fri, 01 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT The modelling exercise suggests that combining extended student vaccination coverage with regular testing at high adherence could help maintain in-person schooling when highly transmissible variants circulate. SARS COVID-19 Vaccination Transmission dynamics Outbreak investigation Surveillance Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-vaccine-2022-01-015-363843da/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-vaccine-2022-01-015-363843da/ Tue, 01 Feb 2022 00:00:00 GMT Despite existing vaccination programs targeting older adults and high-risk groups, substantial influenza burden persists in Europe. The findings suggest that combined strategies using improved vaccines for the elderly and universal pediatric vaccination may offer direct and indirect protection that is cost-effective across diverse European settings, supporting broader policy considerations for seasonal influenza control. Influenza Vaccination Transmission dynamics Health policy Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-epidem-2021-100488-256424ff/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-epidem-2021-100488-256424ff/ Wed, 01 Dec 2021 00:00:00 GMT The findings suggest that cruise ships present high-risk environments for respiratory pathogen transmission, and that the clinical response requirements for outbreak prevention may be infeasible in many cruise settings. The authors recommend public health restrictions on optional leisure activities until longer-term solutions such as vaccines become widely available. SARS COVID-19 Transmission dynamics Outbreak investigation Travel medicine Vaccination Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1038-s41467-021-23761-1-f64a1817/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1038-s41467-021-23761-1-f64a1817/ Tue, 08 Jun 2021 00:00:00 GMT The study is relevant to vaccine policy under constrained supply because it compares allocation approaches for COVID-19 vaccines and highlights the importance of evidence on single-dose efficacy and durability. COVID-19 Vaccination Transmission dynamics Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-s12879-021-06078-8-d29c8601/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-s12879-021-06078-8-d29c8601/ Tue, 25 May 2021 00:00:00 GMT The abstract presents the work as relevant to outbreak control in Wuhan, including understanding unrecognized infection and the scale of nonpharmaceutical interventions. It also links the estimates to broader planning for control strategies and vaccination. COVID-19 SARS Outbreak investigation Transmission dynamics Vaccination Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pmed-1003542-1664a150/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pmed-1003542-1664a150/ Thu, 04 Mar 2021 00:00:00 GMT The operational forecasting system demonstrates that dengue outbreaks can be predicted with sufficient lead time (up to three months) to inform dengue control activities and public health planning. Predictions align with key Vietnamese decision and planning deadlines, and the system showed added value compared to previous practice of not using forecasts. Dengue Transmission dynamics Outbreak investigation Climate and environment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s2666-5247-20-30197-x-4258082a/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s2666-5247-20-30197-x-4258082a/ Mon, 01 Feb 2021 00:00:00 GMT Multiplex serological approaches offer potential solutions for classifying individuals infected more than six months prior and for measuring seroprevalence in very low-transmission settings, addressing key challenges in SARS-CoV-2 serological surveillance. SARS COVID-19 Diagnostics Surveillance Transmission dynamics Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pmed-1003377-da55872d/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pmed-1003377-da55872d/ Mon, 30 Nov 2020 00:00:00 GMT The findings are framed as relevant to mitigating the effect of limited early RTS,S supply and to guiding geographic prioritisation if wider roll-out is recommended from 2021 onward. Malaria Plasmodium falciparum malaria Vaccination Transmission dynamics Vaccine effectiveness Climate and environment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1126-science-aba9757-eb4674c3/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1126-science-aba9757-eb4674c3/ Fri, 24 Apr 2020 00:00:00 GMT The findings inform public health strategies for pandemic response by comparing the relative effectiveness of travel restrictions versus individual-level interventions such as early detection, hygiene, and household quarantine. COVID-19 SARS Outbreak investigation Travel medicine Transmission dynamics Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1093-cid-ciz1244-41882223/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1093-cid-ciz1244-41882223/ Mon, 06 Jan 2020 00:00:00 GMT These quantitative assessments reinforce the operational importance of routine immunization campaigns in mitigating severe clinical burdens and sustaining healthcare system capacity during variable seasonal conditions. Influenza H5N1 Vaccination Surveillance Transmission dynamics Vaccine effectiveness Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1093-cid-ciz358-ef7ef71b/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1093-cid-ciz358-ef7ef71b/ Mon, 06 May 2019 00:00:00 GMT The article is relevant to influenza vaccine strain selection and to interpreting why LAIV effectiveness may differ across studies, countries, and seasons. Its context is influenza vaccination rather than live surveillance. Influenza Vaccination Vaccine effectiveness Transmission dynamics Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-vaccine-2018-07-053-3cb3ac60/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-vaccine-2018-07-053-3cb3ac60/ Sat, 01 Sep 2018 00:00:00 GMT Norovirus causes approximately one-fifth of acute gastroenteritis cases globally each year. With vaccines in clinical trials, model-based predictions can inform immunisation policy design and help optimize allocation across age groups depending on whether infection prevention or severe outcome prevention is prioritized. Gastroenteritis Vaccination Transmission dynamics Vaccine effectiveness Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-ijid-2017-01-031-ce50428a/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-j-ijid-2017-01-031-ce50428a/ Wed, 01 Mar 2017 00:00:00 GMT The article is relevant to TB control planning because it examines when resistant TB might become dominant and which transmission and treatment-related factors may matter in that scenario. It is mainly a strategic and theoretical contribution rather than an empirical report. Tuberculosis Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis Transmission dynamics Antimicrobial resistance Treatment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-16-30513-8-b018160f/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-16-30513-8-b018160f/ Wed, 01 Mar 2017 00:00:00 GMT The findings provide estimates for prioritising areas for vaccination during yellow fever outbreaks and demonstrate the potential for predictive modelling to guide targeted vaccine allocation, though practical implementation would require consideration of vaccine supply and delivery constraints. Yellow fever Vaccination Travel medicine Outbreak investigation Transmission dynamics Health policy Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-16-30204-3-6fe3eb84/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-16-30204-3-6fe3eb84/ Thu, 01 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT Expanding preventive and therapeutic initiatives supports international health frameworks designed to minimize viral transmission and decrease disease-associated mortality globally. Hepatitis B Hepatitis D Transmission dynamics Vaccination Climate and environment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-16-00004-9-89b59c19/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1016-s1473-3099-16-00004-9-89b59c19/ Sun, 01 May 2016 00:00:00 GMT The results indicate that localized gaps in immunization coverage can amplify transmission risks even when regional averages appear adequate, suggesting that precision-focused vaccination campaigns may offer more efficient outbreak prevention than broad population-level measures. Mumps Rubella Measles Vaccination Outbreak investigation Transmission dynamics Climate and environment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1056-nejmoa1411100-bc1ed17c/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1056-nejmoa1411100-bc1ed17c/ Thu, 16 Oct 2014 00:00:00 GMT A central West Africa Ebola epidemic analysis connecting case surveillance with forward projections. Ebola Outbreak investigation Transmission dynamics Surveillance Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-1471-2334-13-81-f57da03d/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1186-1471-2334-13-81-f57da03d/ Mon, 11 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT The study is relevant to pandemic preparedness planning because it examines how timing of vaccine access interacts with other control measures. It is a modeling analysis of intervention timing and resource use rather than evidence about a real-world outbreak. Influenza COVID-19 Vaccination Transmission dynamics Treatment Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1017-s0950268806007217-bbe032f1/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1017-s0950268806007217-bbe032f1/ Tue, 26 Sep 2006 00:00:00 GMT The findings suggest that rapid hospitalization is a key intervention for reducing Ebola epidemic size, providing quantitative support for containment strategies. Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever COVID-19 Transmission dynamics Treatment Outbreak investigation Mathematical modelling https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pmed-0030141-c53ae570/ https://globalinfectiousdisease.com/research/articles/10-1371-journal-pmed-0030141-c53ae570/ Tue, 04 Apr 2006 00:00:00 GMT The findings suggest that drug half-life and pre-existing resistance levels should inform the choice of antimalarial used for IPT, and that drugs with little existing resistance are not advisable for IPT in high-transmission areas. Malaria Transmission dynamics Treatment Antimicrobial resistance Mathematical modelling