Tuberculosis burden in Saudi Arabia: retrospective analysis of national surveillance data, 2012–2024, with future forecasts
BMC Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1186/s12879-026-14222-5
- PMID
- —
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- W7203653109
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The authors frame the findings as relevant to advancing WHO End TB targets in Saudi Arabia, calling for strengthened surveillance, targeted screening, and region-specific interventions.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examined long-term national tuberculosis (TB) trends, spatial distribution, demographic patterns, and short-term future incidence in Saudi Arabia using Ministry of Health surveillance data.
Study design
A retrospective analysis of national TB surveillance records (2012–2024) using segmented regression for temporal trends, burden and incidence analyses across 20 health regions, and exploratory ARIMA and exponential smoothing forecasts to 2029.
Population and setting
The setting is Saudi Arabia, covering all 20 health regions, with 37,477 reported TB cases over 2012–2024. Cases were skewed toward males, adults aged ≥15 years, and non-Saudi residents, with regional concentration noted in Jeddah and Riyadh.
Main findings
TB notifications declined by roughly 70 cases per year after a 2013 change point, with incidence around 7–8 per 100,000 nationally and a further dip during the 2020 pandemic. Burden concentrated in Jeddah and Riyadh; Jazan showed an elevated population-adjusted notification rate. Males comprised 67.5–79.7% of cases and adults ≥15 years about 97%; non-Saudis accounted for 42.0–57.5%. Pulmonary TB represented 73.6–79.0% of cases. Exploratory models projected broadly stable incidence through 2029 with wide prediction intervals.
Public-health relevance
The authors frame the findings as relevant to advancing WHO End TB targets in Saudi Arabia, calling for strengthened surveillance, targeted screening, and region-specific interventions.
Important limitations
The authors note that future projections are exploratory given the small number of annual observations and carry considerable uncertainty, as reflected in wide prediction intervals. No further explicit limitations are stated in the abstract; this summary is therefore limited to the supplied single-article abstract/metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
Indexing under TB and Saudi Arabia with a surveillance topic tag makes the article discoverable for users reviewing country-level TB notification patterns; no connection to a live surveillance signal is implied.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 5 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.