Spatiotemporal patterns of Rift Valley fever virus in Africa: a retrospective genomic epidemiology and phylodynamic modelling study
The Lancet Microbe·
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.lanmic.2025.101251
- PMID
- 41722611
- PMCID
- PMC12979000
- OpenAlex
- W7130416603
- Study type
- Mathematical modelling
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
Tracking these historical dispersal routes highlights how environmental modifications and climatic shifts may influence future viral establishment, suggesting that specific ecological zones warrant focused monitoring efforts.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study sought to characterize the evolutionary trajectory and geographic distribution of Rift Valley fever virus throughout Africa, with particular attention to lineage C.
Study design
Researchers conducted a retrospective genomic epidemiology investigation employing molecular clock analysis, phylogenetic inference, and continuous phylogeographic reconstruction.
Population and setting
The analysis incorporated historical viral sequences obtained from human and animal samples in Burundi, Kenya, and Rwanda, alongside archived global records.
Main findings
Overall viral genetic variation remained low, yet lineage C displayed active evolution with annual substitution rates between 3.58 × 10⁻⁴ and 9.76 × 10⁻⁴ per site. This variant likely originated in Zimbabwe during the mid-1970s and rapidly dispersed across eastern and southern Africa, exceeding 50,000 square kilometers in annual diffusion.
Public-health relevance
Tracking these historical dispersal routes highlights how environmental modifications and climatic shifts may influence future viral establishment, suggesting that specific ecological zones warrant focused monitoring efforts.
Important limitations
The authors acknowledge that additional research is necessary to validate the observed associations between environmental changes and viral expansion.
GIDS interpretation
This work offers a historical phylogeographic reference that may help researchers locate relevant literature and identify temporal gaps requiring subsequent sequencing efforts.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 11 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.