Wastewater-based epidemiology of influenza A virus in Shenzhen: baseline values and implications for multi-pathogen surveillance
Emerging Microbes & Infections·
- DOI
- 10.1080/22221751.2025.2552724
- PMID
- 40855516
- PMCID
- PMC12444953
- OpenAlex
- W4413612985
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The abstract presents wastewater IAV baselines and modeled estimates as potential inputs for timing seasonal vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions. It also reports that the median baseline detected abnormal increases in respiratory syncytial virus, although the supplied abstract does not provide further details about that analysis.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examined whether wastewater IAV measurements and related wastewater characteristics could establish baseline patterns, estimate infections, and identify potential early warning periods for seasonal IAV activity in Shenzhen.
Study design
The study used weekly real-time PCR measurements from wastewater samples and applied a random forest model to estimate IAV infections from viral concentrations and physico-chemical parameters. Samples were collected over one year from 38 treatment plants.
Population and setting
The setting was 38 wastewater treatment plants in Shenzhen, China. The analysis included 2,764 wastewater samples collected from March 2023 through March 2024.
Main findings
The study reported seasonal IAV concentration patterns with peaks in winter 2023 and spring 2024. A median-based wastewater baseline was reported to provide 2–4 weeks of warning before the defined influenza-season threshold, and the optimized random forest model reported a mean absolute error of 2,307 and an R² of 0.988.
Public-health relevance
The abstract presents wastewater IAV baselines and modeled estimates as potential inputs for timing seasonal vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions. It also reports that the median baseline detected abnormal increases in respiratory syncytial virus, although the supplied abstract does not provide further details about that analysis.
Important limitations
The supplied material does not state explicit study limitations or provide enough methodological detail to assess issues such as external validation, generalizability beyond Shenzhen, or the basis for the reported intervention-timing implications. This summary is therefore limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; the original paper is required for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
The article is discoverable in the supplied metadata under surveillance, climate and environment, vaccination, treatment, influenza, and China. It provides contextual evidence about wastewater-based IAV monitoring in Shenzhen, but does not establish or confirm a live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 15 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.