Climate change reshapes the potential transmission risk of human alveolar and cystic echinococcosis in western China: a projection based on MaxEnt models
Infectious Diseases of Poverty·
- DOI
- 10.1186/s40249-026-01482-1
- PMID
- 42693475
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- W7207842984
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The authors frame the projections as motivation for forward-looking, spatially targeted surveillance and control of human echinococcosis in western China using a One Health approach, given anticipated shifts in alveolar echinococcosis endemicity and expansion of cystic echinococcosis endemicity under climate change.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examined how climate change may reshape the geographic transmission risk of human alveolar and cystic echinococcosis in western China by modelling ecological niches of the two causative parasites and projecting future habitat suitability.
Study design
An ecological niche modelling study using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models fed with geolocated human case records and contemporary bioclimatic variables, evaluated by AUC and AUC of 10% ROC, validated against county-level incidence, and projected onto future periods (2011–2100) under three SSP scenarios from five global climate models.
Population and setting
Setting: western China. Population: 1,247 human echinococcosis cases diagnosed between 1981 and 2016, obtained from the National Echinococcosis Control Program, used as occurrence records in the models.
Main findings
Optimized MaxEnt models showed high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.92; AUCpROC 0.084 for E. multilocularis and 0.070 for E. granulosus sensu lato) and a significant positive correlation with county-level incidence (ρ > 0.6, P < 0.0001). The two parasites occupied distinct climatic niches, with E. multilocularis associated with cool, stable climates with moderate summer moisture and E. granulosus sensu lato with dry-cold winters, warm-humid summers, and moderate seasonality. Projections indicated spatially heterogeneous changes, with E. multilocularis suitable area shifting toward higher altitudes (expansion in Qinghai and Xizang but contraction in Ningxia and Gansu), while E. granulosus sensu lato showed outward expansion from current endemic margins, notably across the Tibetan Plateau, identifying Qinghai and Xizang as expansion hotspots for both.
Public-health relevance
The authors frame the projections as motivation for forward-looking, spatially targeted surveillance and control of human echinococcosis in western China using a One Health approach, given anticipated shifts in alveolar echinococcosis endemicity and expansion of cystic echinococcosis endemicity under climate change.
Important limitations
The summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; no explicit author-stated limitations were provided in the abstract. Original-paper review is required for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
Within GIDS, the paper is discoverable as climate- and environment-linked modelling evidence on echinococcosis in China with One Health and surveillance framing; the abstract alone does not demonstrate linkage to a live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 9 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.