Overall and serotype-specific dengue virus transmission intensity in Mexico, 2016-2023: A modelling study of case-notification data.
PLoS medicine·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004874
- PMID
- 42691122
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- —
- Study type
- Mathematical modelling
- Publisher
- Publisher unavailable
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
Mexico and the broader Americas region have experienced increased dengue incidence in recent years, prompting concerns that climate changes may enhance transmission. Understanding serotype-specific transmission patterns can inform assessments of intervention impact.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
This study investigates spatial and temporal variations in dengue virus (DENV) transmission intensity across 27 Mexican states and characterizes potential serotype-specific differences in transmissibility among DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4.
Study design
The authors applied established catalytic models and a new serotype-specific extension to annual dengue case data reported to Mexico's National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINAVE) between 2016 and 2023.
Population and setting
The analysis encompassed 833,629 probable or confirmed dengue cases across 27 states in Mexico over an eight-year period from 2016 to 2023.
Main findings
Large spatial, temporal, and serotype-specific heterogeneities in transmission intensity were identified. DENV-1 and DENV-2 demonstrated historically high circulation levels across Mexico, while DENV-4 showed consistently low transmission intensity throughout the study period. Increasing DENV-3 transmission intensity was observed in some states, coinciding with large outbreaks.
Public-health relevance
Mexico and the broader Americas region have experienced increased dengue incidence in recent years, prompting concerns that climate changes may enhance transmission. Understanding serotype-specific transmission patterns can inform assessments of intervention impact.
Important limitations
The authors note that serotype-specific transmission intensity estimates may be affected by potential heterogeneities in case reporting across states and over time, and that this requires validation in future studies. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; original study review is required for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
This modelling study provides evidence regarding historical dengue transmission patterns and serotype-specific differences in Mexico. The findings describe how different serotypes have circulated at varying intensities across geographic regions and time periods, which contributes to understanding the burden of dengue infection in this setting.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 7 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.