Ecological suitability of Japanese encephalitis virus in Australia: A modelling analysis of vector-host transmission dynamics to potential spillover in humans
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013722
- PMID
- 41248205
- PMCID
- PMC12654935
- OpenAlex
- W4416714744
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings identify geographic areas where the model estimates greater ecological suitability and conditional potential for human spillover. The authors state that the results may inform targeted surveillance and vector control planning, but the supplied evidence does not establish an ongoing or current transmission signal.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study asks where ecological conditions in Australia may support Japanese encephalitis virus circulation and where human spillover potential may be high if endemic transmission becomes established.
Study design
The authors developed a spatially explicit modelling framework at 1 km resolution. The model combined host and vector presence, host-vector contact, vector infection and transmission potential, and human population density; estimates were compared between local government areas with and without confirmed human clinical cases.
Population and setting
The analysis covered Australia, including local government areas and states or territories. It incorporated Ardeidae birds, domestic piggeries, feral pigs, Culex annulirostris, Culex quinquefasciatus, and human population density.
Main findings
Modelled ecological suitability was elevated along parts of Australia's east and south-west coasts, inland northern areas, and the Murray River Basin. Under the condition that transmission becomes established, the model indicated high human spillover potential in these areas and in parts of the Northern Territory, South Australia, and Western Australia. Local government areas with confirmed human cases had higher population-weighted suitability values than those without confirmed cases.
Public-health relevance
The findings identify geographic areas where the model estimates greater ecological suitability and conditional potential for human spillover. The authors state that the results may inform targeted surveillance and vector control planning, but the supplied evidence does not establish an ongoing or current transmission signal.
Important limitations
The reported human spillover estimates are conditional on JEV transmission becoming established and are based on modelled ecological and epidemiological inputs. Explicit study limitations are not provided in the supplied abstract; this summary is therefore limited to the single-article abstract and metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
This article is discoverable as Australia-focused Japanese encephalitis evidence involving climate and environmental factors, One Health, surveillance, and transmission dynamics. It provides modelling context for geographic suitability and conditional spillover potential, not confirmation of a live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 10 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.