Temporal dynamics, climate associations, and surveillance performance of Lassa fever in Nigeria, 2020–2025: a national longitudinal analysis
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives·
- DOI
- 10.24171/j.phrp.2026.0226
- PMID
- —
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- —
- Study type
- Ecological study
- Publisher
- Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The observed decline in diagnostic verification alongside sustained mortality suggests potential gaps in current monitoring frameworks. Recognizing environmental drivers and integrating cross-sectoral health approaches could strengthen future outbreak preparedness and response strategies.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
What temporal patterns, diagnostic verification rates, environmental correlations, and pandemic-related disruptions characterized national Lassa fever reporting in Nigeria between 2020 and 2025?
Study design
Researchers applied an ecological framework to analyze nearly six years of continuous national surveillance records using regression, correlation, and interrupted time-series modeling techniques.
Population and setting
Aggregated national-level data encompassing all reported Lassa fever incidents across Nigeria throughout the specified five-year window.
Main findings
Laboratory confirmation rates decreased significantly over time, while the case fatality proportion remained stable near fifteen percent. Weekly rainfall showed an inverse relationship with case volumes, whereas warmer conditions correlated positively with transmission increases. Seasonal peaks demonstrated substantially higher incidence than quieter periods, and pandemic movement restrictions temporarily lowered confirmed reports without altering initial suspicion volumes.
Public-health relevance
The observed decline in diagnostic verification alongside sustained mortality suggests potential gaps in current monitoring frameworks. Recognizing environmental drivers and integrating cross-sectoral health approaches could strengthen future outbreak preparedness and response strategies.
Important limitations
The ecological methodology explicitly prevents definitive causal conclusions regarding the observed associations. Variations in patient demographics and testing practices may also influence reported mortality figures. Because this evaluation relies exclusively on the provided abstract and metadata, comprehensive methodological details and raw datasets require consultation of the complete publication.
GIDS interpretation
This publication offers historical context regarding reporting trends and environmental correlates for Lassa fever in West Africa. It functions as reference material for understanding regional epidemiological behavior rather than indicating any active or emerging detection event.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 7 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.