Potential determinants of the decline in mpox cases in Belgium: A behavioral, epidemiological and seroprevalence study
International Journal of Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107132
- PMID
- 38942168
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- W4400061964
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
Understanding which factors contributed to the waning of the 2022 mpox epidemic can inform outbreak response strategies and help anticipate future transmission dynamics in similar settings.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study investigates epidemiological, behavioral, and immunological factors that may explain the decline in mpox cases in Belgium after the epidemic peaked in July 2022.
Study design
The authors combined national surveillance data, a prospective registry of mpox patients from the Institute of Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, a behavioral survey among HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis users, and seroprevalence measurements of anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies across four time points in 2022.
Population and setting
The study focused on mpox patients and individuals at greater risk of exposure, specifically HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis users, in Belgium during 2022.
Main findings
Mpox patients diagnosed later in the epidemic reported lower sexual risk behavior, including fewer sexual partners, less sex at mass gatherings, and lower likelihood of belonging to the central sexual network. No substantial changes in sexual behavior were observed among HIV-PrEP users, and anti-orthopoxvirus seroprevalence did not increase notably before national vaccination campaigns began. The changes in immunity and behavior among the at-risk population appear insufficient to explain the epidemic decline, but shifts in the profile of mpox patients may have contributed.
Public-health relevance
Understanding which factors contributed to the waning of the 2022 mpox epidemic can inform outbreak response strategies and help anticipate future transmission dynamics in similar settings.
Important limitations
This summary relies on the supplied single-article abstract and metadata. The original paper is required for decision-grade interpretation of methodology, confounders, selection bias in registry and survey populations, and causal inference regarding the epidemic decline.
GIDS interpretation
The article was classified under Monkeypox and Belgium, making it discoverable through disease-specific and geographic queries. It provides context on behavioral and immunological changes during the 2022 mpox outbreak but does not directly link to active surveillance signals.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 6 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.