The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study
PLOS Medicine·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004325
- PMID
- 38215160
- PMCID
- PMC10833859
- OpenAlex
- W4390828082
- Study type
- Guideline
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The forecasted rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity among people aging with HIV has implications for clinical workforce preparedness, subspecialty care linkages, and resource allocation. Clinicians will need to remain current on evolving comorbidity-specific guidelines, and policymakers must support extended clinical capacity to meet complex healthcare needs.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study aimed to forecast the prevalence of specific comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy in the United States through 2030.
Study design
Agent-based simulation modeling using the PEARL model, informed by CDC HIV surveillance data on new diagnoses and longitudinal NA-ACCORD data on comorbidity risk from 2009 to 2017. Simulations were replicated 200 times and forecasted outcomes through 2030.
Population and setting
People with HIV who initiated ART in the United States, stratified into 15 demographic subgroups by race/ethnicity (Hispanic, non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black/African American), gender, and HIV acquisition risk (men who have sex with men, people with history of injection drug use, heterosexual men and women). The forecasted 2020 population was 670,000 individuals.
Main findings
The population of people with HIV receiving ART is forecasted to grow from 670,000 in 2020 to 908,000 by 2030. Multimorbidity prevalence is projected to increase from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. Depression and anxiety prevalence is expected to rise from 60% to 64%. Dyslipidemia, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and myocardial infarction are forecasted to increase, while hypertension prevalence is expected to decrease. Substantial heterogeneity exists across demographic subgroups, with Black women with history of injection drug use projected to have the highest multimorbidity at 92% in 2030.
Public-health relevance
The forecasted rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity among people aging with HIV has implications for clinical workforce preparedness, subspecialty care linkages, and resource allocation. Clinicians will need to remain current on evolving comorbidity-specific guidelines, and policymakers must support extended clinical capacity to meet complex healthcare needs.
Important limitations
The forecasts assume that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed from 2009 to 2017 will continue through 2030, and do not account for influences occurring outside this historical period. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; the original paper is required for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
This modeling study was classified under AIDS, United States, and multiple health topics including surveillance, treatment, and health policy. The GIDS links reflect the study's focus on forecasting HIV comorbidity burden to inform clinical and policy planning, rather than reporting a live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 12 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.