Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506
- PMID
- 35696427
- PMCID
- PMC9232128
- OpenAlex
- W4282839539
- Study type
- Cross-sectional study
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings indicate that antibody persistence and infection timing may affect interpretation of serological studies for leptospirosis. The modelling approach may provide additional temporal information from cross-sectional data, although the abstract does not establish its operational or clinical impact.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examined how long antibodies to Leptospira remain detectable after infection and whether cross-sectional serological data could be used to estimate infection timing and the force of infection in Fiji.
Study design
The researchers analysed results from a 2013 cross-sectional serosurvey using serocatalytic models. They also incorporated longitudinal antibody-kinetics data to estimate the probable timing of infection.
Population and setting
The analysis used population age-structured seroprevalence data from Fiji collected in 2013, with additional longitudinal antibody data.
Main findings
Estimated antibody persistence was approximately 8.33 years under a constant force-of-infection model and 7.25 years under a time-varying model. The age-structured seroprevalence data alone could not separate the models, while the added antibody-kinetics data supported the time-varying model. Most antibody-positive participants were estimated to have been infected during the preceding two years.
Public-health relevance
The findings indicate that antibody persistence and infection timing may affect interpretation of serological studies for leptospirosis. The modelling approach may provide additional temporal information from cross-sectional data, although the abstract does not establish its operational or clinical impact.
Important limitations
The age-structured seroprevalence data alone could not distinguish between the constant and time-varying force-of-infection models, so the model comparison depended on additional longitudinal antibody-kinetics data. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; the original paper is required for decision-grade assessment of methods, assumptions, uncertainty, and generalisability.
GIDS interpretation
The article is discoverable in contexts involving leptospirosis, Fiji, serological surveillance, outbreak investigation, diagnostics, and climate or environmental health. It provides methodological and disease-context evidence only and does not establish or validate a current surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 10 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.