Risks and Benefits of Preexposure and Postexposure Smallpox Vaccination1
Emerging Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.3201/eid0911.030369
- PMID
- 14718077
- PMCID
- PMC3035543
- OpenAlex
- W2032779868
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings provide quantitative decision thresholds for smallpox vaccination policy, balancing rare but serious vaccine complications against bioterrorism or outbreak risk in the post-eradication era.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study develops a decision model to assess individual risk-benefit tradeoffs for smallpox vaccination, weighing vaccine-related adverse events against smallpox infection risk under varying attack scenarios.
Study design
Decision-analytic modeling study evaluating vaccination thresholds based on population size, attack probabilities, contact risks, and serious adverse event rates.
Population and setting
The model considers a population of 280 million and examines risk thresholds for healthcare workers, investigation team members, and the general population.
Main findings
At a 1-in-10 probability of 1,000 initial cases, an individual faces greater risk from serious vaccine adverse events than from smallpox itself. Healthcare workers would accept preexposure vaccination only if contact risk exceeds 1 in 100 and attack probability exceeds 1 in 1,000. Investigation team members would accept vaccination at contact risk of 1 in 2.5 and attack risk above 1 in 16,000. Postexposure vaccination is recommended in nearly all scenarios except when vaccine efficacy falls below 1 in 5,000.
Public-health relevance
The findings provide quantitative decision thresholds for smallpox vaccination policy, balancing rare but serious vaccine complications against bioterrorism or outbreak risk in the post-eradication era.
Important limitations
This summary relies on the supplied abstract and metadata alone. The model's assumptions about adverse event rates, attack scenarios, vaccine efficacy, and decision criteria require evaluation of the full text for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
The article was published in Emerging Infectious Diseases in 2003 and is tagged for smallpox, SARS, and COVID-19. It appears discoverable through vaccination effectiveness and transmission dynamics classifiers, reflecting its focus on infection risk modeling and immunization policy.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 13 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.