Influence of Heat Wave and Precipitation on Chikungunya Transmission
Geophysical Research Letters·
- DOI
- 10.1029/2026gl123990
- PMID
- —
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- —
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings indicate that increasingly frequent extreme weather events may heighten the risk of chikungunya outbreaks, suggesting that public health preparedness should account for weather-related transmission drivers.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
This study investigated how extreme weather events influence the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases, specifically by examining the combined effects of heat waves and precipitation on chikungunya transmission.
Study design
The investigators developed an SEI-SEIR dynamic model that incorporated heat waves and effective precipitation as parameterization schemes, and validated it against surveillance data from the 2025 chikungunya outbreak in Foshan.
Population and setting
The study was based on the 2025 chikungunya fever outbreak that occurred in Foshan.
Main findings
Heat waves demonstrated a dual effect on transmission: while mosquito suitability decreased by 9.7%, accelerated viral replication and altered human behavior produced a net 76% increase in infected cases. Effective precipitation had a nonlinear relationship with outbreak scale, with dispersed rainfall increasing mosquito abundance by 205% and amplifying transmission by 10.5%.
Public-health relevance
The findings indicate that increasingly frequent extreme weather events may heighten the risk of chikungunya outbreaks, suggesting that public health preparedness should account for weather-related transmission drivers.
Important limitations
This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata. Assessment of potential limitations such as model assumptions, generalizability to other settings, or data quality constraints requires access to the full original paper.
GIDS interpretation
This article represents a published, peer-reviewed contribution to the literature on climate-related infectious disease dynamics and may be discoverable through standard bibliographic searches using the title, disease focus (chikungunya), or thematic terms (climate, transmission).
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 7 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.