Risk assessment and perspectives of local transmission of chikungunya and dengue in Italy, a European forerunner
Nature Communications·
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41467-025-61109-1
- PMID
- 40623994
- PMCID
- PMC12234714
- OpenAlex
- W4412090402
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings support prioritizing case detection in areas and times where environmental and climate conditions permit transmission, regardless of prior outbreak history, to address the growing frequency and scale of local arboviral outbreaks in Europe.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examined spatiotemporal patterns of dengue and chikungunya importation and local transmission in Italy between 2006 and 2023, assessing factors driving outbreak locations and calculating reproduction numbers for six local outbreaks.
Study design
Retrospective analysis applying generalized additive models to travel-related case records, reproduction number calculations from autochthonous case data, and computational modeling integrating human density, entomological, and climate data to map transmission risks.
Population and setting
Travel-related and autochthonous dengue and chikungunya cases in Italy from 2006 to 2023.
Main findings
Outbreak locations were driven by case importation rather than local transmission risk, with dengue importation notably higher than chikungunya, particularly June through October. Upon detection, transmission control was achieved within 15 days, although reporting delays and favorable temperatures permitted multi-generational transmission from mid-August to mid-November. High-risk areas showed significantly longer epidemic risk periods for chikungunya (over four months), but observed importation trends suggest increasingly frequent local dengue outbreaks are expected.
Public-health relevance
The findings support prioritizing case detection in areas and times where environmental and climate conditions permit transmission, regardless of prior outbreak history, to address the growing frequency and scale of local arboviral outbreaks in Europe.
Important limitations
This summary relies on the supplied single-article abstract and metadata. The original paper is required for decision-grade interpretation of methodological details, data quality, model assumptions, and generalizability beyond the Italian context.
GIDS interpretation
The classifier links indicate this article addresses dengue, chikungunya, and malaria in Italy with focus on climate and environment, outbreak investigation, transmission dynamics, and travel medicine. These topical and geographic tags facilitate discovery in surveillance contexts examining European arboviral activity and climate-driven transmission risk.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 13 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.