Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae)
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762
- PMID
- 27304211
- PMCID
- PMC4909274
- OpenAlex
- W2431482754
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The article presents modeled estimates that may inform assessment of arboviral transmission risk and the design of vector-control planning. The abstract identifies integrated entomological and medical surveillance as relevant to that assessment; this summary does not treat surveillance data as validation of the model or as evidence of a current signal.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
What potential for locally sustained chikungunya or dengue transmission was estimated after imported human cases in northern Italy, using a population model of Aedes albopictus?
Study design
The study calibrated a mosquito population model with 2014 abundance observations from ten northern Italian sites. It used local temperature patterns and estimated habitat suitability to model seasonal mosquito abundance and calculate outbreak probabilities after imported cases, assuming no control interventions.
Population and setting
The modeled setting comprised ten sites in northern Italy with Aedes albopictus abundance data collected in 2014. The modeled introduction events were imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue occurring during specified seasonal periods.
Main findings
The model reproduced seasonal variation and differences among sites in mosquito abundance. It estimated chikungunya outbreak probabilities of approximately 4.9% to 25% for introductions from early summer through mid-November, while dengue probabilities were lower, approximately 4.2% to 10.8% for introductions from mid-July through mid-September. Later-spring precipitation was negatively associated with estimated habitat suitability, which the authors described as potentially reflecting larval-site washout.
Public-health relevance
The article presents modeled estimates that may inform assessment of arboviral transmission risk and the design of vector-control planning. The abstract identifies integrated entomological and medical surveillance as relevant to that assessment; this summary does not treat surveillance data as validation of the model or as evidence of a current signal.
Important limitations
The estimates are based on mosquito abundance measured in 2014 at ten sites and on model assumptions involving imported cases and no control interventions. The abstract does not provide enough information to assess model validation, uncertainty beyond the reported ranges, representativeness of the sites, or applicability to other periods and locations. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
The article is discoverable in the supplied metadata under dengue, chikungunya, arboviral diseases, Italy, surveillance, climate and environment, outbreak investigation, and transmission dynamics. It provides historical, model-based context for those topics only and does not establish or confirm a live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 13 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.