Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020
Eurosurveillance·
- DOI
- 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.17.2000257
- PMID
- 32372755
- PMCID
- PMC7201952
- OpenAlex
- W3022825990
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Publication version
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Open linked preprint →Why this research matters now
The abstract indicates that substantial estimated pre-symptomatic transmission may limit reliance on case finding and contact tracing alone for outbreak control. It also reports that detailed contact-tracing information is important when estimating these transmission quantities from outbreak data.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study estimated COVID-19 generation and serial intervals, the share of transmission occurring before symptom onset, and reproduction numbers using outbreak symptom-onset data.
Study design
This was an outbreak-data modelling study using cluster information from Singapore and Tianjin, China. The analysis incorporated uncertainty about incubation periods and transmission networks and included sensitivity analyses.
Population and setting
The analysis used COVID-19 outbreak clusters from Singapore and Tianjin, China. Containment and quarantine measures were in place during data collection.
Main findings
Estimated mean generation intervals were 5.20 days for Singapore and 3.95 days for Tianjin. Estimated pre-symptomatic transmission accounted for 48% of infections in Singapore and 62% in Tianjin; reproduction-number estimates based on generation intervals were slightly higher than those based on serial intervals.
Public-health relevance
The abstract indicates that substantial estimated pre-symptomatic transmission may limit reliance on case finding and contact tracing alone for outbreak control. It also reports that detailed contact-tracing information is important when estimating these transmission quantities from outbreak data.
Important limitations
The estimates depend on assumptions about the incubation-period distribution and the underlying transmission network, and sensitivity analyses identified a need for detailed contact-tracing information. Existing quarantine and containment measures may have increased the estimated contribution of pre-symptomatic transmission. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; the original paper is required for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
The article is discoverable as evidence concerning COVID-19 transmission dynamics and outbreak investigation in Singapore and China. Its findings provide study-specific context and do not establish or validate a live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 12 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.