The impact of immunization programs on 10 vaccine preventable diseases in Italy: 1900–2015
Vaccine·
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.01.065
- PMID
- 29428176
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- W2794391238
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The authors frame universal vaccination programs as a highly effective prevention tool and emphasize that health authorities should reinforce public confidence in vaccines by communicating the scientific evidence of their benefits.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study evaluates how universal vaccination programs in Italy affected morbidity and mortality from ten vaccine-preventable diseases over 1900–2015, focusing on changes after vaccine introduction.
Study design
A retrospective analysis of national annual surveillance data (1900–2015) using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models fitted to the pre-vaccination period and projected onto the vaccination era to estimate cases prevented by immunization.
Population and setting
The Italian national population across 1900–2015, with a specific subgroup analysis in children aged 0–4 years as the most susceptible age class.
Main findings
After vaccine introduction and especially following recommendations for universal childhood use, observed incidence rates were substantially lower than rates projected from pre-vaccination trends. More than 4 million cases were estimated to have been prevented overall, with roughly 35% occurring among children in the early years of life; diphtheria accounted for the largest number of prevented cases, followed by mumps, chickenpox, and measles.
Public-health relevance
The authors frame universal vaccination programs as a highly effective prevention tool and emphasize that health authorities should reinforce public confidence in vaccines by communicating the scientific evidence of their benefits.
Important limitations
The summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation; no explicit limitations were reported in the abstract.
GIDS interpretation
The article is catalogued under GIDS classifiers covering vaccination, surveillance, and outbreak investigation in Italy, which would aid retrieval of this evidence within the library; no link to a current surveillance signal is established.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 15 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.