Estimating measles susceptibility and transmission patterns in Italy: an epidemiological assessment
The Lancet Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00293-2
- PMID
- 40753987
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- W4412864495
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The authors highlight heterogeneous regional immunity gaps, persistent susceptibility among adults born in the 1980s–1990s, and substantial transmission contributions from unvaccinated adults, and they propose tailored vaccination strategies, including adult catch-up campaigns, as a resource-efficient framework for refining immunisation policy.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study aimed to assess current measles epidemiology in Italy in order to identify transmission patterns and population groups most susceptible to infection, supporting anticipation and prevention of future outbreaks.
Study design
A retrospective epidemiological assessment using surveillance case records from the National Integrated Measles and Rubella Surveillance System (Jan 1, 2013 to Dec 31, 2022), supplemented by 2023–2024 incidence data and analysed with transmission pair methods and a catalytic modelling approach to estimate susceptibility and the effective reproduction number for 2025.
Population and setting
Suspected measles cases reported nationally in Italy between 2013 and 2022, with modelling extended through 2023–2024 incidence data to produce national and regional estimates for 2025.
Main findings
During 2013–2022, 14,946 measles cases were reported. The mean generation time was 11.7 days (95% CrI 11.3–12.0). Of 795 infection episodes, 88.9% originated in unvaccinated individuals and 33.3% involved adults aged 20–39 years. Modelling projected that in 2025, 9.2% of the Italian population would remain susceptible (11.8% among those under 20 years), with consistent immunity gaps among adults aged 20–40 years across regions and regional effective reproduction numbers ranging from 1.31 to 1.78.
Public-health relevance
The authors highlight heterogeneous regional immunity gaps, persistent susceptibility among adults born in the 1980s–1990s, and substantial transmission contributions from unvaccinated adults, and they propose tailored vaccination strategies, including adult catch-up campaigns, as a resource-efficient framework for refining immunisation policy.
Important limitations
The abstract does not state explicit study limitations. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; the original paper is required for decision-grade interpretation, and findings such as regional effective reproduction numbers depend on modelling assumptions that are not detailed in the abstract.
GIDS interpretation
The article is discoverable through GIDS classifiers related to measles and rubella surveillance, transmission dynamics, and vaccination in Italy, providing contextual background on national susceptibility and transmission metrics; no connection is made here to any live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 14 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.