The effect of heterogeneity in uptake of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine on the potential for outbreaks of measles: a modelling study
The Lancet Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1016/s1473-3099(16)00004-9
- PMID
- 26852723
- PMCID
- PMC5859952
- OpenAlex
- W2260053339
- Study type
- Mathematical modelling
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The results indicate that localized gaps in immunization coverage can amplify transmission risks even when regional averages appear adequate, suggesting that precision-focused vaccination campaigns may offer more efficient outbreak prevention than broad population-level measures.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
How does geographic variation in childhood immunization coverage combined with localized contact patterns influence measles transmission potential, and which targeted vaccination approaches might mitigate this risk?
Study design
This investigation utilized a mathematical simulation framework incorporating geospatial school enrollment records and immunization survey data to estimate pathogen spread under varying contact structures.
Population and setting
The analysis examined elementary school entrants aged five within San Diego County, California, during the 2008 academic year.
Main findings
Incorporating spatial clustering of vaccine coverage and localized social contacts elevated estimated transmission metrics by seventy percent compared to uniform mixing assumptions. Simulated scenarios demonstrated that elevating immunization rates by half within a subset of under-vaccinated institutions or fully covering individuals holding belief-based exemptions substantially diminished projected outbreak likelihood. Focusing efforts exclusively on privately operated schools yielded minimal impact on overall transmission estimates.
Public-health relevance
The results indicate that localized gaps in immunization coverage can amplify transmission risks even when regional averages appear adequate, suggesting that precision-focused vaccination campaigns may offer more efficient outbreak prevention than broad population-level measures.
Important limitations
The summary relies exclusively on the supplied single-article abstract and bibliographic metadata, requiring access to the original manuscript for decision-grade interpretation. Additionally, the computational approach depends on assumed contact parameters and historical survey data that may not reflect current demographic or behavioral patterns.
GIDS interpretation
This publication provides theoretical insights into how uneven immunization distribution influences infectious disease dynamics, offering contextual reference material for understanding transmission mechanics rather than direct observational reporting.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 13 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.