Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature
BMC Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1186/1471-2334-14-480
- PMID
- 25186370
- PMCID
- PMC4169819
- OpenAlex
- W2035692177
- Study type
- Systematic review
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The abstract notes that the reported R values illustrate the boundary between controllable influenza activity with moderate illness and outbreaks requiring intensive mitigation, and recommends continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel outbreaks.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
To summarize published estimates of the reproduction number (R) for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza, including the 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009 pandemics.
Study design
A systematic review of the literature that retained papers estimating R for pandemic, seasonal, or novel influenza viruses, supplemented by additional papers identified from references of retained papers.
Population and setting
Published studies covering the 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009 influenza pandemics, seasonal influenza epidemics, and human infections with novel influenza viruses (e.g., H5N1).
Main findings
Median R values were 1.80 (IQR 1.47–2.27) for the 1918 pandemic, 1.65 (1.53–1.70) for 1957, 1.80 (1.56–1.85) for 1968, 1.46 (1.30–1.70) for 2009, and 1.28 (1.19–1.37) for seasonal influenza. For 2009, medians were similar across the first (1.46) and second (1.48) waves. Six R values were reported for novel influenza viruses, with four of those values summarized in the available abstract.
Public-health relevance
The abstract notes that the reported R values illustrate the boundary between controllable influenza activity with moderate illness and outbreaks requiring intensive mitigation, and recommends continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel outbreaks.
Important limitations
The abstract does not state limitations. This summary is therefore limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation, including appraisal of heterogeneity, methodological quality of included R estimates, and applicability across settings.
GIDS interpretation
The article is indexed under influenza-related diseases and topics such as transmission dynamics and outbreak investigation. This is discoverability and topical context only; no connection to a live surveillance signal is made from the supplied evidence.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 10 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.