Assessing vaccine strategies for mpox outbreak in New York City using an age-structure model
BMC Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1186/s12879-024-09551-2
- PMID
- —
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- W4403014052
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The paper argues that current vaccine coverage is sufficient to prevent large-scale mpox resurgence in New York City even with a similar gathering event, and that limited vaccine doses in other settings should prioritize high-risk individuals aged 34–45 years.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examines how alternative mpox vaccination strategies would have altered the trajectory of the 2022 outbreak in New York City.
Study design
An age-structured epidemiological model was calibrated to New York City mpox surveillance data and then used to simulate alternative vaccination scenarios.
Population and setting
The setting is New York City during the 2022 mpox outbreak, with the model calibrated to surveillance data covering May 19 to November 3, 2022.
Main findings
The authors report that, relative to the status quo, a no-vaccination scenario increases new infections to roughly 385% and extends transmission duration to about 350%, whereas earlier pre-outbreak vaccination reduces new infections to 94.2–96% of the baseline.
Public-health relevance
The paper argues that current vaccine coverage is sufficient to prevent large-scale mpox resurgence in New York City even with a similar gathering event, and that limited vaccine doses in other settings should prioritize high-risk individuals aged 34–45 years.
Important limitations
The summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; the original paper is required to assess assumptions, parameter choices, and decision-grade applicability. Explicit limitations are not detailed in the supplied abstract.
GIDS interpretation
This modeled, scenario-based evaluation is relevant to discoverability of vaccination-strategy questions for mpox but, on its own, does not confirm or refute any current surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 10 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.