Dynamic modeling and optimal control of Mpox among MSM in a central Chinese city
BMC Public Health·
- DOI
- 10.1186/s12889-026-28925-6
- PMID
- —
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- W7203546654
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings offer a quantitative basis for prioritizing resource distribution during localized mpox surges. They illustrate how adaptive management of prevention, screening, clinical access, and immunization can improve outbreak containment outcomes.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The authors seek to identify the most effective intervention strategy for controlling mpox transmission among men who have sex with men in an urban Chinese environment.
Study design
Researchers constructed a modified SEIR compartmental model to simulate disease spread and tested fifteen distinct intervention protocols over a simulated hundred-day period.
Population and setting
The analysis targets men who have sex with men living in a central Chinese municipality during a modeled outbreak scenario.
Main findings
Projected case counts exceeded six thousand under baseline conditions without any interventions. Applying targeted measures consistently lowered infection totals, with community-focused prevention performing best alone. Combining all four recommended actions produced the greatest reduction, and dynamically adjusted protocols proved more cost-efficient than static approaches.
Public-health relevance
The findings offer a quantitative basis for prioritizing resource distribution during localized mpox surges. They illustrate how adaptive management of prevention, screening, clinical access, and immunization can improve outbreak containment outcomes.
Important limitations
The investigation depends exclusively on mathematical projections rather than collected patient or surveillance datasets. Consequently, the estimated impacts may not account for actual human behavior patterns or real-world healthcare delivery constraints.
GIDS interpretation
This article appears in a peer-reviewed public health journal and addresses computational methods for infectious disease management. It serves as a theoretical reference for researchers examining multi-strategy outbreak responses within defined demographic groups.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 11 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.