The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009385
- PMID
- 34644296
- PMCID
- PMC8544850
- OpenAlex
- W3207150082
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Publication version
This article has a linked preprint
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Open linked preprint →Why this research matters now
The estimates identify countries and populations where the authors project that increased vaccination coverage could have a substantial effect on Japanese encephalitis burden. The abstract also indicates that reported cases and deaths are substantially below the estimated burden in many endemic countries.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study estimated the population living in areas suitable for endemic Japanese encephalitis virus transmission, the disease burden from 2010 to 2019, and the modeled effects of vaccination in endemic countries.
Study design
The study combined spatial analysis of factors associated with Japanese encephalitis risk with estimates of force of infection derived from age-specific incidence data. It used these estimates and susceptible-population estimates to model cases, deaths, and vaccination effects for 2010-2019.
Population and setting
The analysis covered countries with endemic Japanese encephalitis virus transmission and populations living in areas modeled as suitable for sustained transmission. It used age-specific incidence data from endemic countries and reported country-level estimates, including India, Bangladesh, China, Malaysia, and Taiwan.
Main findings
The study estimated that 1.543 billion people lived in areas suitable for endemic transmission. For 2019, it estimated 56,847 cases and 20,642 deaths, compared with 81,258 cases and 29,520 deaths in 2010. The model attributed an estimated 314,793 cases and 114,946 deaths prevented during 2010-2019 to vaccination, with the largest absolute modeled impact in China and the largest percentage reductions in Taiwan and Malaysia.
Public-health relevance
The estimates identify countries and populations where the authors project that increased vaccination coverage could have a substantial effect on Japanese encephalitis burden. The abstract also indicates that reported cases and deaths are substantially below the estimated burden in many endemic countries.
Important limitations
The abstract does not state explicit study limitations. The findings are model-based estimates that depend on spatial risk analysis, age-specific incidence data, force-of-infection estimates, and assumptions about susceptible populations and vaccination effects; this summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
The article is discoverable as evidence concerning Japanese encephalitis transmission dynamics, disease burden estimation, and vaccination impact in several endemic countries. It provides modeled historical context, not confirmation of a current surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 8 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.