Climate change, urbanisation and transmission potential: Aedes aegypti mosquito projections forecast future arboviral disease hotspots in Brazil
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013415
- PMID
- 40966207
- PMCID
- PMC12445552
- OpenAlex
- W4414323855
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The work is framed as supporting national and sub-national arboviral risk planning and highlighting compounded risks for peri-urban and rural populations that may benefit from integrated climate, vector-control, and equity-oriented interventions.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examines how climate change and urban expansion together influence Aedes aegypti mosquito density in Brazil and the resulting implications for arboviral transmission risk.
Study design
A modeling study combining a stage-structured delay-differential equation for Ae. aegypti with Boosted Regression Trees integrating anthropogenic factors, driven by CMIP6 climate projections under multiple SSPs (2024–2080) and validated against historical entomological surveillance data.
Population and setting
National-scale projections across Brazil, with spatial granularity down to local administrative boundaries and emphasis on regional differences (notably North, South, and Southeast).
Main findings
Ae. aegypti density is projected to rise unevenly across Brazil, with North exceeding thermal limits while the South and Southeast show marked increases; under SSP5-8.5, Southeast density could rise up to 92%. The basic reproductive number for dengue is projected to increase, with the Southeast facing the largest gains as mosquito growth outpaces human population growth. Shifting from SSP5-8.5 to SSP1-2.6 is reported to reduce projected national density increases from 31% to 11% by 2080.
Public-health relevance
The work is framed as supporting national and sub-national arboviral risk planning and highlighting compounded risks for peri-urban and rural populations that may benefit from integrated climate, vector-control, and equity-oriented interventions.
Important limitations
Explicit limitations are not stated in the supplied abstract. The summary is therefore limited to the supplied single-article abstract/metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
The paper is indexed under dengue and chikungunya with a Brazil focus and themes of climate/environment, transmission dynamics, surveillance, and health policy; this contextual metadata supports discoverability for users searching SSP-based vector projections, but no live surveillance signal is confirmed or implied.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 11 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.