Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis
Vaccine·
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.01.015
- PMID
- 35109968
- PMCID
- PMC8861572
- OpenAlex
- W4210253805
- Study type
- Mathematical modelling
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
Despite existing vaccination programs targeting older adults and high-risk groups, substantial influenza burden persists in Europe. The findings suggest that combined strategies using improved vaccines for the elderly and universal pediatric vaccination may offer direct and indirect protection that is cost-effective across diverse European settings, supporting broader policy considerations for seasonal influenza control.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examined the health and economic impact of 27 seasonal influenza vaccination strategies targeting elderly and/or pediatric populations across eight European settings.
Study design
The authors used an age-structured dynamic transmission model calibrated to data from eight European countries between 2010/11 and 2017/18. They compared base-case non-adjuvanted trivalent vaccination in the elderly with strategies involving improved elderly vaccines, mass pediatric vaccination, and combinations thereof, estimating costs and quality-adjusted life years from a healthcare perspective.
Population and setting
The analysis covered approximately 205.8 million people in England, France, Ireland, Navarra, The Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, and Spain. The modeled strategies targeted individuals aged 65 years and older and/or children.
Main findings
Moving elderly populations to improved trivalent vaccines reduced infections by a median of 261.5 per 100,000, while quadrivalent vaccines yielded 150.8 fewer infections per 100,000. Mass pediatric vaccination at 25% uptake provided indirect protection to the elderly, preventing approximately 234 to 267 infections per 100,000 depending on vaccine type, with health gains across all age groups. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €35,000 per QALY, combining improved elderly vaccines with universal pediatric quadrivalent vaccination provided the highest net benefits and cost-effectiveness probabilities in all settings.
Public-health relevance
Despite existing vaccination programs targeting older adults and high-risk groups, substantial influenza burden persists in Europe. The findings suggest that combined strategies using improved vaccines for the elderly and universal pediatric vaccination may offer direct and indirect protection that is cost-effective across diverse European settings, supporting broader policy considerations for seasonal influenza control.
Important limitations
Cost-effectiveness conclusions depend on vaccine pricing. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; decision-grade interpretation requires review of the original paper, including detailed assumptions about transmission parameters, calibration validity across heterogeneous settings, and sensitivity analyses.
GIDS interpretation
The article addresses vaccination strategy and policy questions in a European context and was indexed under health policy, transmission dynamics, and vaccination topics. It provides modeling evidence relevant to seasonal influenza control but does not report outbreak surveillance data or describe an emerging epidemiological signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 10 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.