Transmission dynamics and effect of control measures on the 2022 outbreak of mpox among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in England: a mathematical modelling study
The Lancet Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1016/s1473-3099(23)00451-6
- PMID
- 37708908
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- W4386595080
- Study type
- Mathematical modelling
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings suggest that reductions in sexual partner rates among some GBMSM drove the outbreak reversal, and that timely vaccination helped limit future resurgences, informing control strategies for future mpox outbreaks.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examined the transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox outbreak in England and assessed the contributions of behavioural changes and vaccination to the observed downturn.
Study design
A mathematical modelling study combining case surveillance data, interval estimation from 75 cases and 121 case-contact pairs, six methods for estimating R0, and a structured dynamic compartmental transmission model fitted via Bayesian methods.
Population and setting
3,621 individuals diagnosed with mpox in England between 1 May and 16 Nov 2022; the structured model assumed all male cases were GBMSM, stratified into low-risk and high-risk subgroups.
Main findings
Most cases were male (97.9%). The median incubation period was 6.90 days and the serial interval 8.82 days. R0 estimates ranged from 1.41 to 2.17. The model attributed 83.8% of infections to sexual partnerships involving GBMSM at high risk. The downturn was attributed to a 44.5% reduction in sexual partner rate and a 20.0% reduction in the effective infectious period, averting an estimated 165,896 infections, with vaccination marginally increasing this but reducing a potential resurgence from January 2023.
Public-health relevance
The findings suggest that reductions in sexual partner rates among some GBMSM drove the outbreak reversal, and that timely vaccination helped limit future resurgences, informing control strategies for future mpox outbreaks.
Important limitations
The authors note that results were sensitive to assumptions about vaccine effectiveness and the definition of the high-risk GBMSM subgroup. The summary is further limited to the supplied single-article abstract/metadata and would require the original paper for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
Indexed under outbreak investigation and transmission dynamics, this peer-reviewed modelling study of the 2022 England mpox outbreak is discoverable through disease and topic classifiers and may help contextualise retrospective epidemiological patterns; no connection to a live surveillance signal is made.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 9 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.