Viral genetics and transmission dynamics in the second wave of mpox outbreak in Portugal and forecasting public health scenarios
Emerging Microbes & Infections·
- DOI
- 10.1080/22221751.2024.2412635
- PMID
- 39360827
- PMCID
- PMC11486115
- OpenAlex
- W4403100810
- Study type
- Genomic study
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
Scenario analysis projects that small increases in the high sexual activity MSM population can trigger new waves. Findings support continued vaccination, targeted awareness in risk groups, and routine genomic surveillance to anticipate novel threats including global dissemination of clade I viruses.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study characterizes the re-emergence and circulation of Monkeypox virus in Portugal during the 2023 second wave and models transmission dynamics to forecast public health scenarios.
Study design
Genomic epidemiology study combining viral sequencing of 76 out of 121 samples with epidemiological data and compartmental SEIR modeling to estimate transmission parameters and forecast scenarios.
Population and setting
Men who have sex with men in Portugal during 2023, stratified by sexual activity level and vaccination status.
Main findings
The 2023 wave resulted from limited introduction of C.1.1 sublineage viruses followed by sustained transmission. The high sexual activity MSM group contributed approximately 120 times more to transmission than the low activity group. Among high activity individuals, vaccinated persons contributed about eight times less than unvaccinated ones. Vaccinated individuals showed lower disease severity scores compared to unvaccinated individuals.
Public-health relevance
Scenario analysis projects that small increases in the high sexual activity MSM population can trigger new waves. Findings support continued vaccination, targeted awareness in risk groups, and routine genomic surveillance to anticipate novel threats including global dissemination of clade I viruses.
Important limitations
This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation of model assumptions, confidence intervals, data quality, generalizability beyond Portugal, and temporal validity of transmission estimates.
GIDS interpretation
The article was discovered through classifier links to Monkeypox, Portugal, outbreak investigation, vaccination, and genomic epidemiology topics. It provides context on second-wave dynamics and vaccination effectiveness in a European MSM population but does not represent real-time surveillance data.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 14 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.