The 2012 Madeira Dengue Outbreak: Epidemiological Determinants and Future Epidemic Potential
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003083
- PMID
- 25144749
- PMCID
- PMC4140668
- OpenAlex
- W2005033323
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings highlight the importance of timely detection of imported dengue cases during warmer months to support public health planning in Madeira and similar previously unaffected areas.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examines the epidemiological determinants of the 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak and assesses the potential for future epidemic occurrences on the island.
Study design
An ento-epidemiological mathematical modeling study that integrates case data, airline travel patterns, and local climate data to estimate outbreak timing and future risk.
Population and setting
The setting is the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, with a focus on locally acquired and exported cases identified during the 2012 outbreak period.
Main findings
The authors estimate that dengue was introduced roughly one month before the first official cases, coinciding with peak airline travel. They attribute the outbreak's decline in early December 2012 to falling autumn temperatures and report limited support for endemicity but a high potential for future epidemics if seeded between May and August.
Public-health relevance
The findings highlight the importance of timely detection of imported dengue cases during warmer months to support public health planning in Madeira and similar previously unaffected areas.
Important limitations
This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; no explicit limitations are stated in the abstract, and the original paper is required for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
The paper provides contextual evidence on drivers of an insular dengue outbreak and on climatic windows of risk; it does not establish a live surveillance signal, and its relevance to current discoverability depends on broader evidence not supplied here.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 10 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.