Transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox epidemic in New York City
Nature Medicine·
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41591-025-03526-9
- PMID
- 40133528
- PMCID
- PMC12092259
- OpenAlex
- W4408819237
- Study type
- Genomic study
- Publisher
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The findings indicate that mpox transmission in NYC followed general principles of sexually transmitted pathogen spread within highly connected sexual networks, which may inform expectations about outbreak trajectories in similar populations.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examines the transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox outbreak in New York City, focusing on how viral introductions and onward spread shaped the course of the local epidemic.
Study design
Genomic epidemiological study combining phylogeographic analysis of MPXV genomes from NYC and global samples with comparative HIV genomic analysis and epidemic modeling of sexual contact networks.
Population and setting
New York City, with analyses based on MPXV genomes from 757 individuals sampled between April 2022 and April 2023, complemented by 3,287 global MPXV genomes; the population affected was primarily men who have sex with men, transgender women, and nonbinary individuals.
Main findings
Over 200 introductions of MPXV into NYC were identified, with at least 84 leading to onward transmission, primarily within sexual contact networks. Both MPXV and HIV cluster sizes were best described by scale-free distributions, and individuals in MPXV clusters were more likely to have a prior HIV diagnosis and to belong to a recently growing HIV transmission cluster. Modeling suggested that densely connected individuals are infected early, after which the rapid expansion and decline of the outbreak is consistent with depletion of highly connected parts of the sexual network.
Public-health relevance
The findings indicate that mpox transmission in NYC followed general principles of sexually transmitted pathogen spread within highly connected sexual networks, which may inform expectations about outbreak trajectories in similar populations.
Important limitations
No explicit limitations are stated in the supplied abstract or metadata. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract/metadata and requires the original paper for decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
The article provides genomic and modeling context describing how an mpox outbreak emerged and resolved within a specific sexual contact network; it does not by itself confirm any live surveillance signal and should be interpreted as background evidence on transmission dynamics rather than as a real-time detection finding.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 10 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.