Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970–2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects
BMJ Global Health·
- DOI
- 10.1136/bmjgh-2025-022252
- PMID
- —
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
- —
- Study type
- Systematic review
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
Monitoring progressive changes in viral spread capabilities underscores the importance of timely, balanced resource distribution paired with localized educational initiatives to mitigate future transmission waves.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
What trends characterize the reproductive capacity of distinct mpox lineages over several decades, and how do combined public health measures influence infection trajectories?
Study design
A systematic review and meta-analysis aggregating reproduction number calculations and modelling evaluations sourced from major biomedical databases.
Population and setting
Literature documenting worldwide mpox circulation from 1970 to 2025, including regions experiencing historical clade activity and recent subclade expansions.
Main findings
Aggregated reproduction metrics demonstrated statistically significant upward shifts for both primary clades following the appearance of newer genetic variants after 2023. Concurrent implementation of adaptive behaviours and immunization campaigns corresponded with a notable drop in infection counts during the 2022 period, although magnitude differed according to regional rollout speeds and compliance levels.
Public-health relevance
Monitoring progressive changes in viral spread capabilities underscores the importance of timely, balanced resource distribution paired with localized educational initiatives to mitigate future transmission waves.
Important limitations
The pooled estimates exhibit substantial statistical heterogeneity, reflecting differences in local behavioural adaptations and the timing of medical countermeasure deployment across diverse environments.
GIDS interpretation
The manuscript compiles historical and recent epidemiological parameters alongside intervention outcome data, serving as a reference framework for situational awareness rather than an indicator of ongoing field activity.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 8 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.