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Peer reviewedOpen accessDengueCOVID-19Malaria

Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment

Science·

Neil M. Ferguson, Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer, Ilaria Dorigatti, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Daniel J. Laydon, Derek A. T. Cummings

DOI
10.1126/science.aaf9590
PMID
PMCID
OpenAlex
W2511118048
Study type
Journal article
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Article type
journal-article
Integrity
current

Why this research matters now

The findings can inform policy decisions on dengue vaccine deployment by identifying settings and populations where vaccination offers net benefit versus those where it may inadvertently increase severe disease burden.

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Structured evidence summary

Research question

The study examines how the effectiveness and safety of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine vary by transmission intensity and recipient age, with a focus on predicting optimal deployment strategies.

Study design

The authors developed a transmission dynamic model that treats the live attenuated vaccine as functionally similar to a silent natural infection in priming or boosting immunity, then fitted the model to clinical trial data.

Population and setting

The model evaluates vaccine performance across different age groups and transmission settings, categorized as low, moderate, and high transmission intensity.

Main findings

Vaccine effectiveness depends strongly on transmission intensity and recipient age. In low-transmission settings, vaccination may increase hospitalization risk by inducing secondary-like infections. Moderate-transmission settings show overall benefit but elevated hospitalization risk for seronegative vaccinees. High-transmission settings produce population-level and individual-level benefits, including for seronegative recipients.

Public-health relevance

The findings can inform policy decisions on dengue vaccine deployment by identifying settings and populations where vaccination offers net benefit versus those where it may inadvertently increase severe disease burden.

Important limitations

This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata. Full interpretation of model assumptions, parameter uncertainty, clinical trial cohort characteristics, and generalizability requires the complete published paper.

GIDS interpretation

The classifier links place this article under vaccination, transmission dynamics, vaccine effectiveness, and health policy topics, with dengue as the primary disease tag. These annotations aid discoverability within literature databases and surveillance systems that track vaccine safety and deployment research.

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Related GIDS surveillance

Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.

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Evidence relationships

This article has 17 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.

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