Global, Regional and National Trends in Latent Tuberculosis Infection Prevalence From 1990 to 2023, With Projections to 2050
Discovery Medicine·
- DOI
- 10.24976/discov.med.202638211.205
- PMID
- —
- PMCID
- —
- OpenAlex
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- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Discovery Medicine
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The authors argue that sustained declines in standardized LTBI rates co-exist with a growing absolute caseload, implying that TB elimination efforts require prevention-oriented policies targeting progression to active disease, especially in ageing and other high-risk populations.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study updates long-term trends and demographic redistribution of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) prevalence globally and projects future burden to inform prevention-oriented TB policy under the WHO End TB Strategy.
Study design
A secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 LTBI prevalence estimates using log-linear joinpoint regression (national AAPC for 2010–2023) and a Bayesian age–period–cohort model with RW2 priors linked to UN population projections for 2024–2050, with decomposition and fine-age sensitivity analyses.
Population and setting
Global population analyzed across sex, age group, socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile, WHO region, and 204 countries, with fine-age denominators disaggregated into <20, 20–39, 40–54, 55–69, and ≥70 years.
Main findings
The global age-standardized LTBI prevalence rate fell from about 30,422 to 22,665 per 100,000 (1990–2023; AAPC −0.87%), while prevalent cases rose from ~1.59 to ~1.88 billion (AAPC +0.48%). Declines were observed across all SDI quintiles and WHO regions; 202 of 204 countries showed negative AAPC from 2010–2023, with the United States and Sri Lanka showing non-negative AAPC. Decomposition attributed the 281.87 million net case increase mainly to population growth (+725.19 million) and ageing (+66.94 million), partly offset by lower age-specific prevalence (−510.26 million). Projected global prevalent cases were ~1.88 billion in 2024 and ~2.28 billion in 2050.
Public-health relevance
The authors argue that sustained declines in standardized LTBI rates co-exist with a growing absolute caseload, implying that TB elimination efforts require prevention-oriented policies targeting progression to active disease, especially in ageing and other high-risk populations.
Important limitations
This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; the original paper is needed for decision-grade interpretation. Limitations directly evident from the abstract include reliance on GBD-derived point estimates, with joinpoint and Bayesian intervals conditional on GBD inputs and not propagating upstream GBD estimation uncertainty.
GIDS interpretation
Indexed under tuberculosis and tagged with health policy relevance, the article is discoverable as a methodological context piece for population-level LTBI burden estimation; the abstract itself does not connect the findings to any live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 5 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.