Prognostic value of interferon-γ release assays and tuberculin skin test in predicting the development of active tuberculosis (UK PREDICT TB): a prospective cohort study
The Lancet Infectious Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30355-4
- PMID
- 30174209
- PMCID
- PMC6192014
- OpenAlex
- W2889216817
- Study type
- Cohort study
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
Optimizing diagnostic selection for high-risk demographics may enhance resource allocation by prioritizing individuals with demonstrably higher progression probabilities.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study investigates whether interferon-γ release assays and specific tuberculin skin test cutoffs can accurately forecast the onset of active tuberculosis among individuals at elevated infection risk.
Study design
This prospective cohort design enrolled adults across fifty-four United Kingdom locations, administering three distinct immunological assessments and monitoring outcomes through national databases and direct contact.
Population and setting
The analysis focused on a large sample of recent household contacts and recent international arrivals residing in major British urban areas.
Main findings
Among nearly ten thousand screened individuals, approximately one percent developed active disease over a median follow-up period of twenty-nine months. Negative screening results corresponded to negligible yearly progression rates, whereas positivity on T-SPOT.TB, BCG-stratified skin testing, and QuantiFERON assays yielded markedly higher annual incidence figures relative to conventional five-millimeter or ten-millimeter skin test cutoffs.
Public-health relevance
Optimizing diagnostic selection for high-risk demographics may enhance resource allocation by prioritizing individuals with demonstrably higher progression probabilities.
Important limitations
This assessment is constrained by its dependence on the supplied abstract and bibliographic records, requiring access to the complete publication for thorough methodological scrutiny and decision-grade interpretation.
GIDS interpretation
This publication contributes baseline diagnostic accuracy metrics that may inform literature mapping efforts regarding tuberculosis screening methodologies and risk stratification frameworks.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 11 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.