Spatial epidemiology of yellow fever: Identification of determinants of the 2016-2018 epidemics and at-risk areas in Brazil
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008691
- PMID
- 33001982
- PMCID
- PMC7553304
- OpenAlex
- W3089634048
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Why this research matters now
The study provides an evidence-based framework for describing yellow fever spatial heterogeneity and developing risk maps in Brazil. Its findings indicate that spatial analyses considered by the article included ecological conditions, host-related factors, and social and epidemiological variables rather than climate variables alone.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
Which biological, environmental, and human-related factors were associated with the spatial distribution of confirmed yellow fever cases in Brazil during the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 epidemic periods, and where were conditions predicted to be more favorable for occurrence?
Study design
The article used an ecological spatial analysis with ecological niche modelling. It analyzed confirmed human and monkey cases from two epidemic periods and examined biotic, abiotic, and human-related explanatory variables, including projections of areas with more favorable conditions.
Population and setting
The analysis concerned confirmed yellow fever cases in humans and non-human primates in Brazil during the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 epidemics. The abstract also refers to cases recorded through early 2020 and describes projections at a broader national and regional scale.
Main findings
Human and monkey cases showed broadly overlapping spatial distributions. The later epidemic period had a smaller and more southerly spatial extent, while mammal richness, temperature, precipitation, population density, human footprint, and vaccination coverage were identified as contributors to variation in case occurrence. The projected higher-suitability areas also contracted, and cases reported in 2019 and 2020 were located within areas predicted as at risk by the models.
Public-health relevance
The study provides an evidence-based framework for describing yellow fever spatial heterogeneity and developing risk maps in Brazil. Its findings indicate that spatial analyses considered by the article included ecological conditions, host-related factors, and social and epidemiological variables rather than climate variables alone.
Important limitations
The supplied abstract does not state specific study limitations, and the design is an ecological modelling analysis based on confirmed case distributions and selected explanatory variables. This summary is limited to the supplied single-article abstract and metadata; the original paper is required for decision-grade assessment of model assumptions, data quality, uncertainty, and generalizability.
GIDS interpretation
The article is discoverable in the supplied evidence as a Brazil-focused yellow fever study involving outbreak investigation, transmission context, vaccination, and climate or environmental factors. It provides contextual literature evidence about spatial modelling and risk-area projections, but it does not establish or confirm any live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 13 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.