Unraveling regional variability in Dengue outbreaks in Brazil: leveraging the Moving Epidemics Method (MEM) and climate data to optimize vector control strategies
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases·
- DOI
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013175
- PMID
- 40549823
- PMCID
- PMC12233952
- OpenAlex
- W4411550450
- Study type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Article type
- journal-article
- Integrity
- current
Publication version
This article has a linked preprint
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Open linked preprint →Why this research matters now
The abstract reports that prevention and control activities could be prioritized by regional historical and climatic patterns, beginning with the North-Northwest and Southeast groups and followed by the other identified regions. It also describes possible use alongside monitoring systems and cross-sector coordination, without establishing that this approach improves health outcomes.
Structured evidence summary
Research question
The study examined whether historical dengue patterns combined with climate characteristics could distinguish Brazilian regions and inform the timing of preventive and control activities.
Study design
This was an ecological analysis of dengue data from 2010-2023 aggregated across 120 Brazilian Health Macro-Regions. The authors applied the Moving Epidemics Method to historical patterns and used climate variables with k-means clustering; Roraima was subsequently assigned manually to a separate group.
Population and setting
The setting was Brazil, covering its Health Macro-Regions and incorporating regional epidemiological and environmental characteristics. The analysis included temperature, precipitation, altitude, and Köppen climate classifications.
Main findings
Four main regional clusters were identified, with temperature, precipitation, outbreak timing, high-intensity case levels, and altitude accounting for most of the variation between cluster centers. The reported average outbreak onset was February in the North-Northwest and Southeast groups, March in the Northeast and South, and July in the separately classified Roraima group.
Public-health relevance
The abstract reports that prevention and control activities could be prioritized by regional historical and climatic patterns, beginning with the North-Northwest and Southeast groups and followed by the other identified regions. It also describes possible use alongside monitoring systems and cross-sector coordination, without establishing that this approach improves health outcomes.
Important limitations
The supplied abstract does not state the study's explicit limitations. Interpretation is therefore limited to the single-article abstract and metadata; the aggregated ecological design, reliance on historical data and climate summaries, and manual treatment of Roraima indicate that the original paper is needed for decision-grade assessment.
GIDS interpretation
This article is discoverable as Brazil-focused dengue research concerning climate, outbreak investigation, and surveillance context. The supplied evidence does not establish a connection with any current or live surveillance signal.
Related GIDS surveillance
Literature context does not validate, explain, or change a surveillance signal. Exact and contextual relationships are shown separately.
Evidence relationships
This article has 10 auditable classifier relationships to diseases, places, topics, and study design.